That’s good news. When we last checked the meter in December, it had peaked at 54%. Some people attribute this sharp new decline to the passage of a few weeks without any wildly provocative actions, plus direct talks between the two Korean states, and everyone making nice as the Winter Olympics near.

On the other hand, Eliot Cohen, the Johns Hopkins strategist, commented earlier this month that “There are sounds, for those who can hear them, of the preliminary and muffled drumbeats of war.”