Special Forces soldier won $400K in Polymarket bets on Maduro raid, feds say

Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke is accused of using classified information to place bets on the Jan. 3 raid.
U.S. East Coast-based Naval Special Warfare Operators (SEALs), U.S. Army Green Berets from 10th Special Forces Group (Airborne), and Norwegian Special Operations Commandos prepare to conduct close quarters combat training aboard U.S. Coast Guard cutter USCGC Cypress (WLB 210), to strengthen interoperability with and develop skills in an extreme Arctic environment in Kodiak, Alaska, Feb. 24, 2024, during Arctic Edge 24. AE24 is an annual defense exercise for U.S. Northern Command emphasizing Joint Force operations in an extreme cold weather and high latitude environment and is designed to demonstrate the Command’s ability to conduct Globally Integrated Layered Defenses in the Arctic. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Matthew Dickinson)
In total, the soldier made approximately 13 bets from Dec. 27, 2025, through the evening of Jan. 26, the Justice Department said. Navy photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Matthew Dickinson.

Federal authorities have arrested and charged an Army Special Forces soldier with using classified information to place bets on the Jan. 3 raid that whisked Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of a secure compound and into U.S. custody.

Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, placed bets that totaled about $33,000 on the timing of U.S. operations in Venezuela, according to an indictment unsealed Thursday. He allegedly netted more than $409,000 in winnings through Polymarket. Van Dyke was assigned to Fort Bragg, North Carolina, but also participated in the planning and execution of the Maduro raid.

Attorneys for Van Dyke could not be immediately reached for comment.

Van Dyke began making the bets not long after he signed a U.S. government nondisclosure agreement for “Western Hemisphere Operations” on Dec. 8, the indictment said. He allegedly created a Polymarket account on Dec. 26 using a VPN and connected to the betting website through an exit node, which made it look like he was in a foreign country.

From Dec. 27 through Jan. 2, Van Dyke placed bets on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets, the indictment said. In one trade, he allegedly purchased more than 600 shares of the market bet that U.S. forces would be in Venezuela by the end of January.

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The indictment did not disclose Van Dyke’s exact role in the Venezuela mission. However, it said he was aboard one of the Navy vessels that had helped stage the raid. Just hours after Maduro was captured on Jan. 3 and brought aboard the USS Iwo Jima, Van Dyke uploaded a photo to his Google account depicting him on the deck of a ship at sea, at sunrise, wearing military fatigues and carrying a rifle, according to the indictment.

After the mission, the indictment said Van Dyke withdrew his winnings from his Polymarket account and sent the proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault, which advertises that it generates interest for depositors by lending cryptocurrency and tangible assets to others. About two weeks later, on Jan. 16, Van Dyke allegedly transferred the funds to a cryptocurrency exchange account and then deposited the funds into a newly-created brokerage account.

Shortly after the White House announced Maduro’s capture, social media was flooded with reports of unusual trading in Maduro-related contracts on Polymarket. Van Dyke then took steps to conceal his identity as the trader, according to the indictment. On Jan. 6, the document alleges, Van Dyke asked Polymarket to delete his account and changed the email registered to his cryptocurrency exchange account to an email address that was not subscribed to in his name.

The rise of prediction markets and bets on them have often intersected with U.S. military actions, including the war in Iran and whether ceasefires would hold.

 

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Kyle Rempfer

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Kyle Rempfer is a contributor at Task & Purpose. He has been covering the U.S. military since 2017, and previously worked at the Washington Post and at Military Times. He served in Air Force Special Tactics as a combat controller.