A US official accurately predicted a ‘perfect storm’ of catastrophes before the 2003 Iraq invasion

news
Gen. Petraeus Reflects On The Iraq War

As the anniversary of the war in Iraq approaches, it's difficult to remember the sense of euphoria leading up to the March 2003 invasion.

Having just crushed the Taliban — seemingly forever — the United States was poised to liberate Iraq and drop a democracy in the heart of the Middle East, and that would prove to be a death blow to Al Qaeda.

One person who did not get swept up in the tide of enthusiasm was William Burns, then serving as assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, who wrote a July 2002 memo that proved prescient on many levels.


"Following are some very quick and informal thoughts on how events before, during and after an effort to overthrow the regime in Baghdad could unravel if we're not careful, intersecting to create a 'perfect storm' for American interests," Burns wrote to then Secretary of State Colin Powell in the memo.

First brought to light by Knight Ridder reporters Jonathan Landay and Warren Strobel in July 2003, Burns' memo predicted many of the disasters that followed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and advocated for a much longer presence of U.S. troops than anyone in Washington, D.C. was publicly advocating for at the time.

Now with the Wall Street Journal, Strobel reported on Wednesday that Burns' memo has been publicly released to coincide with the publication of his book "The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal."

In his memo, Burns laid out a series of potential catastrophes that could occur in the run-up to, during, and following a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Some of his scenarios did not happen, such as Saddam Hussein using chemical weapons against Israel and the burning Iraqi oil wells.

But other warnings proved to be right on target, including:

  • Iran increasing aid to anti-American groups in both Iraq and Afghanistan because it feared being "next on US hit list."
  • Security in Iraq collapsing following regime change because Iraqi troops and police would be too afraid to patrol while Iraqis aligned with the United States would prove to be inept.
  • U.S. troops coming under increasing attacks as they patrol both Shiite and Sunni cities. "If they intervene to stop disputes, they are perceived to have sided with one party or another in a tribal dispute, thus incurring the wrath of the opposing party."
  • Afghanistan's security situation simultaneously deteriorating, creating the need for more U.S. troops there.
  • "Carpetbaggers, bill collectors, expats and exiles," arriving in Iraq. "It will be a wild mix."

"I don't mean to be pessimistic, because I really do believe that if we do it right this could be a tremendous boon to the future of the region, and to U.S. national security interests," Burns wrote. "But we should have no illusion that it will be quick or easy."

Burns predicted that U.S. troops would have to stay for, "Five years – maybe four if we're lucky, ten if we're not."

The Iraq war has lasted 16 years so far.

CORRECTION: This story was corrected on March 14 to reflect that William Burns was serving as assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs in 2002.

SEE ALSO: The Hubris Of The Pentagon's Disastrous Invasion Of Iraq, In One Paragraph

WATCH NEXT: Gen. Petraeus On Answering The Call

(Department of Defense)

Actor Mark Wahlberg will be visiting troops overseas to plug Wahlburgers, a fast-casual restaurant chain owned by the actor and his two brothers, Donnie Wahlberg, and chef Paul Wahlberg.

Read More Show Less
From left to right: Naval SEAL Chief Eddie Gallagher, Army 1st Lt. Clint Lorance, and Army Special Forces Maj. Matthew Golsteyn (DoD photos)

The U.S. military will not disintegrate into an undisciplined horde following President Donald Trump's recent intervention in three war crimes cases, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley assured lawmakers on Wednesday.

Milley was testifying before the House Armed Services Committee when he was pressed by Iraq war veteran Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) about the president's actions in the cases of former Army 1st Lt. Clint Lorance, retired Army Maj. Matthew Golsteyn, and retired Navy SEAL Chief Eddie Gallagher.

Read More Show Less

Taliban fighters attempted to fight their way into Bagram Airfield on Wednesday by invading a medical facility just outside of the base's perimeter, a spokesman for Operation Resolute Support said Wednesday.

J.P. Lawrence of Stars and Stripes and Jim LaPorta of Newsweek first reported that the battle lasted for several hours after using car bombs to attack the hospital, which is near the base's northern corner. Helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft were reportedly used to drop ordnance on the hospital.

Read More Show Less
The welcome sign at Naval Air Station Corpus Christi (Facebook photo)

An armed suspect was taken into custody at Naval Air Station Corpus Christi on Wednesday morning after a brief lockdown period, according to the Texas base's Facebook account.

Though the exact nature of the incident is unclear, base officials wrote that no shots were fired and no injuries were reported.

Read More Show Less
(DoD photo)

Among the dozens of requirements outlined in the latest version of the National Defense Authorization Act is the requirement for the Secretary of Defense to create a public database for privatized housing complaints.

So, that will be... a lot.

Read More Show Less