Sexual assaults in the military might be three to four times more frequent than Pentagon estimates, a new study shows.
While the military reported 35,900 sexual assaults in 2021, the study found that the true number may have been roughly 75,500. For 2023, the Pentagon reported 29,000 assaults, but the researchers behind the study say the true number might have been 73,700.
The report, released by the Costs of War project at Brown University, focused on sexual assaults across the two decades of post-9/11 wars, from the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 to 2023. According to the report’s analysis of non-DOD data, over the course of the war in Afghanistan, 24% of active-duty women and 1.9% of active-duty men experienced sexual assault.
The report analyzed independent data sources, categorizing them by low, mid and high-range estimates. On the conservative end, DOD sexual assault rates could be two to four times less than what independent data shows. On the higher end, estimates suggest that the prevalence of sexual assault could be ten times higher than DOD numbers. The report was written by Jennifer Greenburg, a researcher at the University of Sheffield and Stanford University who specializes in war, gender and humanitarianism. Greenburg concluded that the two to four times higher metric is “a conservative but realistic estimation” that is consistent with figures found in other investigative reporting.
“The Pentagon should consider these alarming numbers to be a cost of war. I would challenge them to consider how the violence that members of the military experience themselves is linked to the violence perpetuated abroad through foreign wars,” Greenburg told Task & Purpose.
A DOD spokesperson said they were aware of the report but declined to comment on the methodology behind a non-DOD study.
“The Department continues our sustained progress to build strong command climates and prevent sexual assault, assist sexual assault survivors with recovery, and hold alleged offenders appropriately accountable. Sexual violence will not be tolerated, condoned, or ignored within our ranks. Everything we are doing in this space is focused on helping us make lasting, meaningful change,” the spokesperson said.
Stephanie Gattas, CEO and founder of The Pink Berets, an advocacy organization focused on service-related impacts like military sexual trauma, said the findings were “not surprising at all” since DOD numbers are based on its own reporting mechanism which relies on victims coming forward. In order to get more accurate reporting, the military has to remove the fear factor of reporting sexual assault, she said.
“I can’t even begin to tell you the burden that is laid on us when we hear these women say this has happened but because it’s somebody with a higher rank, then there’s an even greater fear of coming forward because either they’re going to get kicked out or they’re going to get dropped in rank,” Gattas said. “That’s just the lesser of the concerns. There’s even a greater concern that they’re going to go missing.”
The report also argues that the last 20 years of U.S. prioritization “above all else” on readiness and training for deployments “allowed the problem of sexual assault to fester” in a culture permeated by abuse and misogyny.
In the end, said Gattas, the focus on ‘readiness’ actually makes readiness worse.
“It does take away from our readiness because we’re having to pivot and focus on something that is happening at a high rate,” Gattas said. “If we’re trying to focus on the crimes at hand, how are we going to focus on the things that we’re supposed to do, which is becoming ready, and focused.”
An independent committee report sparked by the murder of U.S. soldier Vanessa Guillén also reiterated this notion. Readiness became “paramount over all other responsibilities” like addressing sexual assault and harassment, without acknowledging that respect between soldiers is a critical component, the committee said.
“There is a difference between placing institutional focus on force readiness above all else, versus addressing a known crisis or even following existing protocols, while also fulfilling the institution’s purpose of training for war,” Greenburg said.
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The DOD’s 2023 data showed a decrease in estimated sexual assault prevalence “for the first time in almost a decade.” The decrease, according to the report, is evidence that the emphasis on training and deployments, which ended in 2021, “contributed to a permissive environment for sexual assault.”
Despite more than a decade of numerous policy reforms by the Pentagon and new prevention training given to troops, those efforts “have not meaningfully transformed institutional patterns of abuse,” the report states.
Even with new policies aimed at bringing more justice to sexual assault victims, like the Pentagon’s new Office of Special Trial Counsel – which removed commander authority over legal decisions on these cases – data shows that survivors are still reticent to come forward. The report looked at the average ratio of all available DOD reporting to estimated prevalence data which suggested that on average, less than one in five victims report their assault.
“It’s taken out of the hands of the command and that has changed in some respect, but it still hasn’t stopped the high incidence of sexual assaults that are taking place in the military,” Gattas said.
Minority populations are most at risk
The report also found that sexual assault risk was most pronounced for women of color, one of the fastest-growing populations within the services. Black women, who account for more than 25% of all active-duty women, are especially at risk but for Latinx women, less information is available. However, the report notes that criminological studies shown that “intersecting oppressions produce different risks for sexual abuse.”
According to independent data, queer and trans service members’ are also disproportionately at a greater risk for sexual assault. A 2016 annual DOD survey found that active-duty LGBTQ personnel were four to five times more likely to experience sexual harassment and assault than their non-LGBTQ peers.
Service members who identify as queer and trans can also be less likely to report sexual harassment or assault due to distrust in reporting systems, the report states.
Impacts on Afghan women
The Brown University report also makes the case that while a U.S. justification for the “War on Terror” was to restore Afghan women’s rights, the war made Afghan women’s lives “significantly worse.”
Greenburg said “dramatic increases” in the number of widows and Afghans living with physical disabilities as a result of the war “speak to how women’s lives have been severely worsened by a war supposedly fought in their name.”
Women’s rights are heavily restricted under Taliban rule, an issue that existed pre-U.S. occupation — but across the entire population, Afghans face higher rates of food insecurity, malnutrition and poverty than they did before the war.
“It wasn’t perfect three years ago. But it wasn’t this,” Alison Davidian, the UN Women’s Afghanistan representative said at a press briefing Tuesday.
With women increasingly losing their rights over the last three years, UN data reveals an escalating mental health crisis: 68% of women reported “bad” or “very bad” mental health and 8% said they knew at least one women or girl who attempted suicide.
“There is no equivalence between the absolute devastation and destruction of women’s lives in war zones and the experiences of service women,” the report states. “Rather, this parallel calls into question whether gender equity policies for women in the U.S. military (however limited in themselves) can be understood as feminist if they occur on the backs of women in war zones.”
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